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Defense-Tech Market Signals
Issue 03
Where the capital actually sits

Most defense-tech “markets” are three companies and a long tail.

We tracked $34.3B of venture equity into 395 defense-tech companies over two years, then split it by what those companies build. In nine of ten domains, three companies hold most of the money. In six of them, three companies hold roughly nine tenths of it. Only one domain looks like a real market.

Companies395 tracked
Of which raised229
Capital$34.3B primary equity
Window24 months to Sep 2026
$34.3B
primary equity, 24 months
47%
of it went to just 10 companies
6 of 10
domains where 3 firms hold ~90%
1
domain that is broadly funded
01

How concentrated each domain is

Six domains are effectively closed. If you are not one of three companies, you are not raising serious money in them.

Share of each domain's total primary equity held by its three largest raisers, over 24 months.

Quantum
95% · 11 cos
Manufacturing & materials
94% · 17 cos
Energy & nuclear
92% · 13 cos
Weapons & munitions
89% · 17 cos
C4ISR, RF & sensors
89% · 30 cos
Maritime
89% · 15 cos
Cyber
72% · 29 cos
Autonomy & robotics
65% · 82 cos
AI & data software
62% · 72 cos
Space & aerospace
30% · 102 cos

Sector-wide the same shape holds. Of 395 tracked companies, only 229 raised primary equity at all in the window, and the ten largest raisers took 47% of the $34.3B. The top twenty took 66%.

02

The company that is the domain

In five domains a single company holds more than seventy percent of everything raised. Naming the domain and naming the company is close to the same act.

DomainLargest raiserIts shareDomain total
Manufacturing & materialsHadrian88%$1.84B
MaritimeSaronic77%$3.05B
QuantumPsiQuantum76%$1.35B
C4ISR, RF & sensorsCHAOS Industries71%$1.32B
Weapons & munitionsCastelion70%$1.75B
Energy & nuclearValar Atomics56%$2.60B
AI & data softwareHelsing47%$5.29B
CyberChainguard46%$0.77B
Autonomy & roboticsShield AI35%$6.51B
Space & aerospaceStoke Space11%$9.87B

Anduril is excluded throughout. It was the largest raiser and the largest hirer in four of these domains simultaneously, and including it would have made this table a description of one company rather than of the sector.

03

Space is the exception, and it is the only one

Space and aerospace is the single domain where capital is genuinely distributed. It is also the largest, at $9.87B.

What a real market looks like
The three largest space raisers are Stoke Space at 11%, Impulse Space at 10% and K2 Space at 9%. No company holds more than an eighth of the domain, across 102 companies. Compare that with maritime, where Saronic alone holds 77% across 15 companies. Both are called domains. Only one behaves like a market.

The practical read: in space, a company can raise a competitive round without being the category leader. In the other nine domains the evidence says otherwise, and a founder or an operator should plan for that rather than assume a level field.

04

How fast the typical company grows

Autonomy teams are growing three times faster than cyber teams. This is the median company, so no single giant is driving it.

Autonomy & robotics
+52% · 82 cos
AI & data software
+40% · 72 cos
C4ISR, RF & sensors
+37% · 30 cos
Space & aerospace
+33% · 102 cos
Cyber
+15% · 29 cos

Median headcount growth over 12 months, shown only for the five domains with at least 25 companies. Every figure here is unchanged to within two points when the largest company in the domain is removed, which is why these five are shown and the smaller domains are not.

05

The domains are not separate markets

Ten labels, but the real structure is a handful of fused ones. Sensing has merged into space, and autonomy has merged into AI.

13 companies
Sensors + space
10 companies
AI + autonomy
5
Autonomy + space
5
AI + space
5
Autonomy + maritime
4
Autonomy + munitions
4
Manufacturing + space
4
Autonomy + sensors

58 of 400 tracked companies genuinely operate in more than one domain. Counting each company once and reading the pairs shows two dominant fusions and a long tail of smaller ones. A company selling autonomy without an AI stack, or satellites without sensing, is now the exception.

Method, and what we left out

Cohort. 400 tracked defense-tech and national-security companies, of which 395 carry a usable domain and appear here. Anduril is excluded for the reason given in section 02. Companies whose only classification was a services or unclear label are excluded.

Capital. Disclosed primary equity only, 24 months to September 2026, taken from full round history rather than the most recent round. That distinction matters: 97 companies raised more than once in the window, and counting only the latest round understated the total by 32.5%. Debt, secondary sales, grants, corporate rounds and post-IPO raises are all excluded, because none of them is new money into the business. Undisclosed rounds are invisible to us, so every figure is a floor.

Domains. Every company carries one primary domain and, where genuinely accurate, additional ones. All capital totals use the primary domain only. Under full attribution a large company's entire headcount and capital land in every domain it touches, and in testing, 89% of the sensors category's apparent hiring turned out to be borrowed from companies that are primarily something else. Multiple domains are used only for the overlap map in section 05.

What we cut, and why. We built and then dropped a capital-per-hire figure for each domain. It did not survive its own robustness test: removing the single largest company moved several domains by more than half, because six of the ten hold fewer than twenty companies and are dominated by one or two rounds. The concentration this issue reports is the reason that metric failed, so we published the cause rather than the artefact. Growth rates are shown only where they hold steady when the largest company is removed.

Hiring. Net headcount change over 12 months from LinkedIn observations. LinkedIn lags real start dates and counts profile updates rather than payroll, so recent months are understated. Net change is not gross hiring: a company that hired forty and lost ten shows thirty.

Who's behind this

The Arena recruits inside defense tech.

Concentration like this changes how you hire. In most of these domains the talent that matters has passed through one or two companies, and the people worth calling are not on a job board. That search is what we do. Building a team in any of these categories, or thinking about your own next move? Let's talk.


“The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.” — Theodore Roosevelt
Defense-Tech Market Signals · Issue 03
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